Sweden, long considered a bastion of economic stability and high employment, now confronts difficult times. An economic recession and an upward trend in unemployment threaten the advances achieved in recent years, particularly in those sectors that have historically been the backbone of the labour market.


According to the latest analyses from Arbetsförmedlingen, the Swedish Public Employment Service, the situation is particularly grave in the private service sector, which has long acted as a crucial integration engine and provided the first job opportunities for many newcomers to the country. Emil Persson, a labour market analyst, warns that it is here the most significant decline in job offerings may occur.


From 2014 to 2021, the employment rate among men in especially vulnerable areas rose from 57 to 66 percent, and among women from 47 to 56 percent. The most common jobs have been within transport and warehousing, restaurants, cleaning and services for men, and cleaning and services, healthcare and childcare for women. This positive trend now faces the risk of reversal due to economic downturns.


Nationally, the rise in unemployment may not appear so dramatic: from 6.4 percent (333,000 individuals) this year to 6.6 percent (354,000 individuals) next year. But in metropolitan regions, the situation deteriorates, and the jobs most at risk are precisely within the private service sector.


The high housing prices in the three metropolitan areas mean that the increased mortgage rates have the most significant consequences there.

  • Furthermore, essential goods like food have become more expensive. Hence, people cut back on non-essential consumption.
  • Trade, transport, hotels, and restaurants - these sectors all suffer from the reduced consumption in society. There is also a relatively high proportion of foreign-born individuals and people with shorter education, i.e., the same individuals who reside in these areas, says Emil Persson.

The outlook for job development within the public sector, where relatively many women from vulnerable areas are employed, is more uncertain. Municipalities and regions are also under significant pressure, which Persson views as a cause for concern.


For those entirely new to Sweden, it will be considerably more challenging to secure a position in the Swedish labour market in the coming years.

  • We are in a recession and have witnessed a shrinking GDP for two consecutive quarters. It's a more challenging situation on the labour market for everyone, says Emil Persson.

His best advice for those who lose their jobs is to expand their search area - both in terms of industry and geographically. Furthermore, additional education is always a wise choice.


He also stresses that the situation is far from dire and not comparable to the financial crisis or the pandemic. The economy is expected to begin recovering by 2025.


And there are still jobs available:

  • The number of jobs in our job bank has markedly decreased during the autumn, but there are still vacancies to be found. The need exists. It's not as substantial as a year ago, but it remains.